Suspicious $800M oil trade linked to Trump remarks trigger probe

Minutes before US President Donald Trump announced on social media on March 23 that he was postponing strikes on Tehran’s energy infrastructure, a burst of off-hours trading swept the oil market.

According to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) data, more than $800 million in US and international oil futures changed hands within minutes, arousing suspicion, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday.

The traders behind those well-timed bets profited after US oil prices dropped by as much as 13% following Trump’s reversal. Based on volume-adjusted average prices, at least five firms made gains of $5 million or more from crude futures trades that day, the report said.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is now scrutinizing the surge in trading volumes. The regulator, which supervises futures markets, is trying to gauge whether an insider with prior knowledge of Trump’s March 23 post traded on that information or leaked it to someone who could do so, the report said.

According to the report, the CFTC is interested in at least three firms as part of its inquiry. The London-based investment firm Qube Research & Technologies made around $5 million in adjusted gains from those trades, while Forza Fund Ltd. made approximately $10 million. TotalEnergies' trading arm, Totsa, posted a profit of around $200,000.

The report said that the companies have not been accused of wrongdoing. Some of the firms approached by the CFTC attributed their trading decisions to a headline that appeared about 15 minutes before Trump’s Truth Social Post, the report added.

The CFTC’s investigation is continuing, according to the report.