ISTANBUL
A two-year study, conducted by scientists from universities worldwide, including Istanbul Technical University, has identified "atmospheric rivers" as a key factor in record-breaking temperatures and rapid glacier melting in Antarctica.
Scientists from different institutions studied the effects of atmospheric rivers in Antarctica for nearly two years.
The research, published in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, highlights the significant role of atmospheric rivers in triggering heat waves in coastal regions of Antarctica, leading to sudden glacier melts and rising sea levels. In the continent’s interior, these phenomena contribute to heavy snowfall.
Rare but powerful weather events
Academics from Türkiye who participated in the Antarctic research shared their insights with Anadolu.
Deniz Bozkurt, lecturer at Chile’s Valparaiso University and a visiting Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences researcher at Istanbul Technical University, described atmospheric rivers as long and narrow air currents that transport water vapor from tropical regions toward the poles.
Though these weather events occur only three to four times a year, their impact is profound, especially in coastal areas, Bozkurt said. "They trigger temperature records, cause rapid glacier melting, and accelerate sea level rise. In the inland, where the topography is higher, they can lead to heavy snowfall."
He recalled experiencing three major storms during a two-week Antarctic field camp with the Chilean research team. "All of these storms were caused by atmospheric rivers. Our research analyzed their effects on glaciers using meteorological station data, satellite imagery, and various datasets," he explained.
Highlighting the impact of climate change, he warned that atmospheric rivers could intensify.
"As evaporation increases, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere rises. As a result, atmospheric rivers carry more moisture, and their effects become more severe. In future scenarios, atmospheric rivers are expected to become more frequent and stronger. This is a factor that could accelerate sea level rise.”
“Our study shows that atmospheric rivers are an important factor that must be considered in climate change scenarios because they not only set temperature records but can also contribute to sea level rise.”
Positive and negative impact
While atmospheric rivers accelerate glacier melting by bringing rain to coastal areas, Bozkurt emphasized that they can also benefit glacier growth in inland regions through heavy snowfall.
"They can have a positive effect on glacier health and stability," he said. Therefore, it is important to assess their impact from a holistic perspective, rather than focusing solely on negative effects, he added.
He also highlighted the need for updated climate models that incorporate both the positive and negative effects of atmospheric rivers.
He pointed out that atmospheric rivers are not unique to Antarctica, saying they can impact regions from the tropics to mid-latitudes and the poles.
A major source of Antarctic precipitation
Burcu Boza, a Ph.D. student at the Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences at Istanbul Technical University, said their study, which examines the unique effects of atmospheric rivers in Antarctica, provides valuable projections on how these weather events may evolve in the future.
Although Antarctica holds the world’s largest freshwater reserves, Boza explained that it exhibits desert-like characteristics due to its low precipitation levels.
"A significant portion of the precipitation reaching Antarctica is delivered by atmospheric rivers. These are long and narrow air currents that transport water vapor from tropical regions to high latitudes. However, the path taken by atmospheric rivers in Antarctica and the amount of moisture they carry have distinct and unique characteristics compared to those in other regions,” she said.
Understanding the impact of atmospheric rivers in Antarctica is essential for accurately predicting global sea level changes, she added.
In this study examining climate model projections, they obtained key findings on how atmospheric rivers in Antarctica might change in the future, she said, adding: "This research is a multidisciplinary study conducted with contributions from scientists from various countries. We are very delighted and proud to be part of this project from Istanbul Technical University.”
Developing a prediction model
Emir Toker, a lecturer at Istanbul Technical University’s Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, highlighted that atmospheric rivers are among the extreme weather events that are difficult to predict in advance.
Toker pointed out that existing earth system models used in polar regions have complex calculation processes with high margins of error, and thus, he added, they focus on model development studies to increase predictability.
"In this study, we demonstrated that atmospheric rivers can be predicted nearly three to five days in advance," Toker stated. “This is a significant development. Given the delicate ecosystem and nature of Antarctica, it is crucial to know about such processes in advance.”
