El Nino, Indian Ocean climate pattern raise risk of record heat: Expert

• Türkiye could see continued heat anomalies and extended wildfire season, says Levent Kurnaz

A strengthening El Nino could push global temperatures higher in the coming months, while a simultaneous positive Indian Ocean Dipole could intensify regional risks, according to Turkish climate scientist Levent Kurnaz.

“There will be an upward jump in average temperatures worldwide. When El Nino’s short-term contribution is added to a system that is already warming, we are likely to see record-hot months,” said Kurnaz, director of Bogazici University’s Climate Change and Policy Research Center.

El Nino is a recurring climate pattern marked by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific that can influence weather around the world. The positive Indian Ocean Dipole is a similar ocean-atmosphere pattern in which waters in the western Indian Ocean become warmer than normal while those in the east become cooler.

According to data from Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society, sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region, a key area used to monitor El Nino, were recently 2.1 degrees Celsius above the long-term average, after anomalies of 0.98 degrees in April-May and 1.55 degrees in June.

Kurnaz said an anomaly of 2 degrees or more is generally classified as a very strong El Nino. He said forecasts for August-October suggest the event could be comparable to major episodes such as those of 1997-98 and 2015-16.

The World Meteorological Organization expects El Nino to become a dominant influence on global climate during the August-October period, increasing the likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the world and altering precipitation patterns.

Drought, flooding

Kurnaz said the effects could include increased drought risk in Indonesia, eastern Australia and southern Africa, while parts of the eastern Pacific and western South America could face heavier rainfall and flooding. He also said El Nino typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity.

He said the simultaneous development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could reinforce some of these effects.

“The fact that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole coincides with the same period creates an overlap that adds the effects of the two systems to each other, laying the groundwork for regional risks to be experienced more sharply compared with previous periods,” Kurnaz said.

Kurnaz said climate change is also an important factor, with rising global temperatures providing a higher baseline for El Nino-related heat.

For Türkiye, he said El Nino is not expected to produce extreme changes in rainfall but could contribute to continued temperature anomalies and an extended period of elevated wildfire risk, particularly in the Mediterranean region.