CAIRO
Backed by Arab and regional allies, Saudi Arabia is engaged in a “cold war” with regional archrival Iran, analysts believe.
On Sunday, an extraordinary meeting of Arab foreign ministers in Cairo condemned Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah for meddling in Arab affairs.
The meeting was held at the request of Saudi Arabia amid tension with Tehran over the conflict in war-torn Yemen and Lebanon.
"Saudi Arabia has won Arab support for escalation against Iran,” Anwar Eshki, head of the Jeddah-based Middle East Center for Strategic Studies, told Anadolu Agency on Monday.
“The first sign of this escalation will be filing a complaint with the UN Security Council against Iran to impose more sanctions [on Tehran] and encourage the U.S. to press for changing the political regime in Iran,” he said.
Tension has been running high between Riyadh and Tehran over the ongoing conflict in Yemen, where Iran-backed Houthi rebels overran much of the country, including capital Sanaa, in 2014.
Saudi Arabia accuses Iran of providing weapons and ballistic missiles to the Houthi rebels.
According to the Saudi Foreign Ministry, Houthi rebels fired 80 ballistic missiles toward Saudi territories in recent years.
"Iran's ballistic missiles may reach all Arab countries, not only Saudi Arabia if the Arab world failed to respond to Iran’s meddling in regional affairs,” Eshki said.
The Saudi-Iranian rivalry was also evident in Lebanon this when Lebanese Prime Minister announced a surprise resignation from Riyadh.
In his resignation address, Hariri accused Iran and Hezbollah of sowing sedition in the region and meddling in Arab affairs.
No warfare
Anas al-Qassas, an Egyptian analyst, believes that Saudi Arabia has won Arab and international support for escalating against Iran.
“The Arab support is spearheaded by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and is coordinated with the White House in a way or another,” he said.
Al-Qassas, however, ruled out that the Saudi-Iranian escalation would turn into warfare.
“No problems will happen in the region as long as there are implicit understandings between regional powers as Egypt, and Turkey,” he opined.
Last week, Saudi Arabia called a meeting of an anti-terrorism alliance of 41 Muslim countries on Nov. 26.
Al-Qassas, however, rules out that the meeting would come out with anything against Iran.
The Egyptian analyst believes that the Saudi policies against Iran would not be a “game changer” in the region.
“This is because Iran is following a clear vision under pressure even if it is financially weak,” he said. “This is clear in Iranian policies in dealing with Washington”.
“Saudi policies or vision, however, are not yet clear in dealing with its foes,” al-Qassas said.
Saudi pressures
Egyptian analyst Mokhtar Ghobashi casts doubts that the Saudi-led pressures would force Iran to reach a settlement.
"Iran would not surrender easily, even if Saudi Arabia believes that the pressures would lead to a compromise or settlement of regional crises,” said Ghobashi, the vice chairman of the Cairo-based Arab Center for Political and Strategic Studies.
The analyst voiced concern that Riyadh might dragged into a conflict with Tehran “in which both sides would emerge losers while Washington will be victorious”.
Jawad al-Hamad, director of the Jordan-based Center for Middle East Studies, opines that political pressure on Iran would only pay off if it was accompanied by economic pressure.
"It is not reasonable to see some Arab states, particularly Gulf countries, enjoy distinguished economic ties with Iran to the level that their trade volume reaches to $46 billion annually,” he said.
“Despite our differences with Iran, they remain within the Islamic house, which does not call for alliance with Israel, even if there is an [Arab] failure to confront Iran,” al-Hamad said.
He went on to call on Iran to take a step forward toward “halting sectarian wars, ending and reaching understanding with Arab states with a view to defusing the crisis and maintaining Arab security”.
“The Arab countries should also give a chance to Iran [to do so],” al-Hamad said.
Reporting by Hussein Qabbani and Viola by Ali H. M.Abo Rezeg
