What could Israel face in Gaza ground offensive?

ISTANBUL

Since the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas, Israel has reportedly been preparing to launch a major ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, calling up 360,000 reservists and amassing troops and equipment in the region.

While preparations continue despite fears a land operation could cause a spike in civilian deaths, Israeli boots have so far stopped short at the border.

International Crisis Group expert Joost Hiltermann finds it “interesting” that Tel Aviv has not yet given its troops the go-ahead, saying it “would want to act very fast before opposition starts building to a ground offensive.”

Hiltermann, who is the Crisis Group’s program director for the Middle East and North Africa, highlights several factors that could be playing a role in Israel's decision.

One major concern is the risk of surging civilian casualties, which would trigger strong international backlash against Israel.

“They should worry about going in as a ground offensive and killing a lot of Gazans because that would stir an international reaction that would not benefit them.”

The Dutch writer and activist also believes Israel may have come under increasing pressure from the US and others, such as Arab countries, on their actions in Gaza.

The long-term governance of Gaza also poses a major challenge for Israel if it succeeds in its mission to eliminate Hamas, since ensuring a stable administration would require careful planning.

A third factor is the far-reaching consequences a ground offensive could have on Israel's position and diplomatic relations in the Middle East.

He said Israel cannot alienate countries like Saudi Arabia when they want to normalize relations.

Israel may also be concerned about the safety of its hostages that Hamas took in its Oct. 7 surprise attack, he noted.

“They think that if they go in all out, their hostages will get killed and that is not what they want.”

Hamas, having long been in charge of Gaza and deeply entrenched there, may deal heavy casualties to an advancing Israeli force in the case of a land operation, he added.

“Maybe they think that actually the cost of defeating Hamas will be too high on the Israeli soldiers because Hamas is so well dug in and on the ground in Gaza.”

The latest escalation began on Oct. 7 when Hamas initiated Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, a multi-pronged surprise attack that included a barrage of rocket launches and infiltrations into Israel by land, sea, and air. It said the incursion was in retaliation for the storming of the Al-Aqsa Mosque and growing violence by Israeli settlers.

The Israeli military then launched Operation Swords of Iron against Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip.

Risk of spillover

Potential spillover of the conflict is another “rather significant” concern, according to the Crisis Group analyst, who fears that any accidental incident could trigger a violent response.

He pointed to the highly unstable situation in the occupied West Bank, where more Palestinians have been killed in the last week than in the last several months.

Likewise, the situation in East Jerusalem, also occupied by Israel, is always very risky because of the Al-Aqsa Mosque.

To the north, skirmishes have also been taking places with Hezbollah on Israel’s border with Lebanon, which Hiltermann said is “quite dangerous.”

However, he added that the two nations are trying to prevent an escalation.

“There’s so much that can go wrong there. That any rocket or shell, say a Palestinian rocket or Hezbollah rocket … kills people would lead probably to a violent response that is escalatory.”

Cease-fire

As things stand, a cease-fire looks like a far-off possibility anytime soon, according to the expert.

Hiltermann also thinks Israel wants to feel certain it has done serious damage to Hamas, but at the moment “it hasn't done any damage to Hamas.”

He said getting the hostages back is also very important for Israel.

"The fact is that Israel hasn't really come under Western pressure yet to hold its attack."

UN chief Antonio Guterres has called for an “immediate humanitarian cease-fire” to ease the “epic human suffering.”

At least 3,478 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli attacks on Gaza, while the figure stands at more than 1,400 people in Israel.

Will Hamas be defeated?

If Israel can defeat Hamas militarily, it would come at a very high cost to it and an even higher cost to the population of Gaza, he said.

"It may well be that Western states will try to prevent Israel from going all the way, not because they like Hamas, but because they don't want to be responsible for wholesale massacre in Gaza," said Hiltermann.

He believes the real question is who will govern Gaza if Hamas is gone, as there are no apparent alternatives.

"Israel will have to act very carefully and think very deeply about what it wants the situation to be after the end of the military campaign."

Role of Iran

On Iran's involvement, Hiltermann says that according to American and Israeli intelligence, no clear evidence links the country to Hamas’ recent actions.

While Tehran is “benefiting” and “happy,” that does not mean it was in any way directly involved in planning the Hamas attack on Israel, he said.

Noting that Iran has an alliance with Hamas and has been providing it military support and perhaps funding, he added: “In fact, American intelligence is saying that Iranian leaders apparently were surprised, maybe as surprised as everybody else about Hamas' attack on Oct. 7.”

The risk of Iran getting involved in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will depend on if something goes wrong at the Israel-Lebanon border and the conflict accidentally grows much bigger in size.

It will also depend on whether Israel proceeds with the destruction of Gaza and the number of people killed there rises further, or whether Israel tries to eliminate Hamas entirely, he said.

Another Nakba in the making

According to Hiltermann, Palestinians in Gaza and outside the enclave feel the approach of another Nakba, or “catastrophe,” a word used to refer to the 1948 expulsion of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from their homes and lands after the founding of Israel.

“Israel will try to push them into Egypt as refugees and will not allow them to come back. That is a very deep fear that Palestinians have,” he said.

Whether Israel will be able to do this is another question, he noted, but the first evacuation order telling people to go to southern Gaza has raised that fear.

“For now, Palestinians really don't want to repeat that experience of 1948.”

Unprecedented attack

Hiltermann, who has been covering the region for years, says that like many people, he did not see Hamas’ attack coming.

Only Hamas was fully prepared for it and was capable of keeping its plans confidential until the very beginning of the attack, he said.

But at the same time, it is no surprise that Hamas chose to start another war with Israel.

“We were only surprised about the timing but not about the fact of it because the situation in Gaza was absolutely desperate before Oct. 7.”

Hiltermann said the attack by Hamas was unprecedented in the sense that it was a single attack in one day that killed more Israelis than ever before.

"And that Hamas was more successful than any other group — Palestinian group," he said.

“People say it was comparable to the 1973 war, but that one was fought by the Syrian and Egyptian armies. This is a non-state actor, a resistance group, a militant group. So it's quite remarkable."

However, he emphasized that what happened was “horrific.”

“We should be very clear about that. Attacking civilians is completely prohibited under international law. And the images are just absolutely horrendous,” he said.

Israel’s desire to fight back is understandable, he argued, adding that at the same time, Israel is constrained by international humanitarian law and has to carry out an attack that is proportionate and not indiscriminate.

“At the moment, we are, of course, very concerned that the mass destruction in Gaza is far beyond what Israel would be allowed to do under international law.”